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 Preshow#1PresidentReturn to index of stories... |
Now on New Hampshire Outlook: The race for the White House is over. John Kerry's concession to George Bush came Wednesday. Just Ahead: a closer look at the numbers with our polling experts. Plus: |
| Preshow #2 Lynch Return to index of stories... |
New Hampshire has a new governor. We'll take you to John Lynch's victory party, |
| Hello/Guber Race Return to index of stories... |
Hello. I'm Beth Carroll. Welcome to this "Post Election" edition of New Hampshire Outlook. The Granite State voted for John Kerry-- but the "nation" handed President Bush 4 more years -- sending Kerry back to the Senate --with a pledge to help the president "heal" the nation's divisions. More on that in a moment. But, first: History is made in New Hampshire as Incumbent Governor Craig Benson goes down to defeat. Challenger John Lynch unseating a first-term Governor for only the second time in 78 years. With unofficial returns-- Lynch defeated Benson 51-percent to 49-percent or about 13-thousand votes. It was so close -- the race wasn't called until early this morning. Phil Vaughn--who was at Lynch's headquarters-- takes us through the "long" election night. |
| John Lynch Return to index of stories... |
Reporter: WHILE WAITING THEY TALKED ABOUT THEIR CANDIDATE. LYNCH LISTENS TO PEOPLE, HAS RESPECT FOR THE PEOPLE THAT WORK FOR HIM, AND I THINK HE WILL BRING A NEW ERA OF TRUST AND INTEGRITY TO THE CORNER OFFICE. Reporter: LYNCH SUPPORTERS FUNNELED TOGETHER, PATIENTLY WAITING FOR THE ELECTION RESULTS TO TRICKLE IN. EXETER, 4,714. FOR LYNCH. 3,396 FOR BENSON. \\ Reporter: LYNCH'S EARLY NUMBERS WERE STRONG, AND OPTIMISM WAS EASY TO FIND. IT'S A LITTLE HARD TO DECIDE ABOUT KERRY RIGHT NOW BETWEEN KERRY AND BUSH, BUT THAT THINGS ARE LOOKING REAL GOOD FOR JOHN LYNCH. Reporter: MOST HERE WERE DEMOCRATS, OTHERS WERE NOT. WE BELIEVE THAT JOHN LYNCH IS GOING TO START A NEW ERA IN NEW HAMPSHIRE, A NEW ERA THAT SETS ASIDE PARTISANSHIP, THAT LOOKS TO THE ISSUES, THAT LOOKS TO THE THINGS THAT NEW HAMPSHIRE PEOPLE THAT WE'RE ALL LOOKING FOR. Reporter: AS THE EVENING WORE ON, THOSE BIPARTISAN VOICES CONTINUED SHARING GOOD NEWS. THE VOTE IN RYE TODAY FOR GOVERNOR BENSON, 1,717. JOHN LYNCH, 1,970. \\ Reporter: EVEN AS INCH'S LEAD EVAPORATED. BEAR WITH US, IT'S GOING TO BE A LONGER EVENING, BUT I LIKE THESE NUMBERS. Reporter: THE EVENING BECAME MORNING AND BY 1:30 WITH LYNCH HOLDING APPROXIMATELY 51% OF THE VOTES, THE RACE WAS OVER. I JUST WANT TO INTRODUCE THE NEXT GOVERNOR OF THE STATE OF NEW HAMPSHIRE! JOHN LYNCH! \\ § § § § THANK YOU, NEW HAMPSHIRE, THANK YOU! \\ IT IS TIME FOR A FRESH START. IT'S TIME TO PUT ASIDE THE RANCOR OF THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS, AND FOCUS ON WHAT IS IMPORTANT. BETTER SCHOOLS, AFFORDABLE HEALTH CARE, A CLEANER ENVIRONMENT, AND A STRONG ECONOMY. THESE ARE THE ISSUES THAT MATTER MOST TO NEW HAMPSHIRE FAMILIES, AND THESE ARE THE ISSUES THAT MATTER MOST TO ME. THROUGHOUT THIS CAMPAIGN, I HAVE SAID THAT WHAT'S AT STAKE RISES ABOVE PARTISANSHIP. I AM PROUD OF THE SUPPORT THAT I HAVE RECEIVED FROM REPUBLICANS AND INDEPENDENTS AND DEMOCRATS ALL OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE. \\ WHAT CHANGES CAN THE PEOPLE OF NEW HAMPSHIRE EXPECT? WELL, I'VE BEEN CAMPAIGNING ALL ALONG SAYING I'M GOING TO RESTORE INTEGRITY TO THE GOVERNOR'S OFFICE AND PUT THE INTEREST OF THE PEOPLE OF NEW HAMPSHIRE FIRST. AND I WILL. BUT IN ADDITION TO THAT, I'M GOING TO WORK ON INSURING WE HAVE QUALITY EDUCATION FOR OUR KIDS, WORK TO REDUCE HEALTH CARE INSURANCE COSTS FOR OUR SMALL BUSINESSES, AND WORK FOR MORE AND BETTER JOBS. I'M GOING TO START WORKING ON THOSE RIGHT AWAY. TONIGHT WE MOVE NEW HAMPSHIRE IN A DIFFERENT DIRECTION. WE HAVE AN IMPORTANT JOB AHEAD OF US. WE HAVE LOTS OF TIME TO STILL CELEBRATE TONIGHT. \\ BUT NO TIME, NO TIME TO WASTE TOMORROW. SO THANK YOU AGAIN SO MUCH FOR YOUR SUPPORT, AND FOR YOUR TRUST, AND I SAY LET'S GET TO WORK STARTING TOMORROW. \\ Reporter: FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE OUTLOOK, I'M PHIL VAUGHN. |
| Intro Craig Benson Return to index of stories... |
Quite a different story for Governor Craig Benson who sent supporters home Election night without a comment. As Richard Ager reports Benson continued to lay low Wednesday. |
| Intro Andy & Dante Return to index of stories... |
So, now that the dust has settled--just what do all the numbers mean. For some post-election analysis we call upon Dante Scala a political scientist at the Institute of Politics at St. Anselm College and Andy Smith from the UNH Survey Center. Welcome. Q Disappointing night for Gov Benson --lost by some 12-thousand votes. How Much of an IMPACT did Kerry's NH "Win" have on Lynch's Win? Q Gov Benson not able to make the TAX label STICK To Lynch who took the pledge. What about STATE employees -- How much does John Lynch OWE them for his Win??? Q MORAL Issues played a KEY Role in Presidential Race -- also seems to have PROPELLED Lynch into the Governor's Office. Q Benson says he'll likely retire from politics and has no regrets. REAX? |
| Andy & Dante Disc Return to index of stories... |
Carroll: SO NOW THAT THE DUST HAS SETTLED, JUST WHAT DO ALL THE NUMBERS MEAN? FOR SOME POST-ELECTION ANALYSIS WE CALL UPON DANTE SCALA, AND ANDY SMITH FROM THE UNH SURVEY CENTER. WELCOME. A DISAPPOINTING NIGHT FOR GOVERNOR BENSON WHO OBVIOUSLY, NOT AVAILABLE FOR COMMENT TODAY. WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THAT, WHAT'S YOUR READ? Dante: CRAIG BENSON HAS BEEN THE LONELIEST REPUBLICAN IN NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS ENTIRE YEAR, COMPARED TO SAY JUDD GREG OR CHARLIE BASS OR JEFF BRADLEY. HE RAN HIS ADMINISTRATION AS A MAVERICK REPUBLICAN, HE WAS SOMEONE WHO CAME IN TWO YEARS AGO WITH A LOT OF MONEY BUT NOT WITH A LOT OF ROOTS IN THE PARTY. SO HE GOVERNOR EARNED THAT WAY AS WELL. DIDN'T GET ALONG WELL WITH THE REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP IN THE LEGISLATURE, AND WHILE A LOT OF REPUBLICANS DID SAY THEY SUPPORTED BENSON, THEY DIDN'T SEEM TO DO SO WITH A GREAT DEAL OF ENTHUSIASM. I THINK WE SAW THAT IN RICHARD'S PIECE LAST NIGHT. Carroll: ANDY, YOU AGREE WITH THAT? Andy: PRETTY MUCH. IF ANYTHING BENSON HAS NOT DONE THINGS LIKE TYPICAL POLITICIANS DO, AND WHETHER THINGS I THINK HE'S ADDED TO THAT LIST IS HE DIDN'T GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH LIKE YOU'D EXPECT FROM A REGULAR POLITICIAN. Carroll: HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT DID KERRY'S NEW HAMPSHIRE WIN HAVE ON THIS RACE, THE BENSON-LYNCH RACE? Andy: I THINK IT CERTAINLY HELPED DEMOCRATIC TURNOUT. TURNOUT ON BOTH THE REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC SIDE WAS QUITE GOOD, BUT I THINK THE BIGGEST PROBLEM THAT CRAIG BENSON HAD WAS THAT THIS WAS REALLY A VOTE AGAINST BENSON. JOHN LYNCH, ACCORDING TO OUR LATER POLLS WAS STILL RELATIVELY UNKNOWN TO THE VOTERS IN THE STATE. BUT THEY WERE CHOOSING HIM, THEY WERE VOTING AGAINST BENSON, I THINK, RATHER THAN CHOOSING LYNCH. SO I THINK IT WAS A REFERENDUM ON BENSON, AND VOTERS DIDN'T LIKE IT. Carroll: GOVERNOR BENSON NOT ABLE TO HAVE THAT TAX LABEL STICK TO JOHN LYNCH. WHAT ABOUT STATE EMPLOYEES, HOW MUCH DOES JOHN LYNCH OWE THEM FOR HIS WIN? DID THEY COME OUT IN BIG NUMBERS FOR HIM? Dante: THEY'RE VERY IMPORTANT. YOU LOOK AT THE NUMBNESS CONCORD, FOR INSTANCE, CONCORD TRADITIONALLY A DEMOCRATIC AREA TO BE SURE, BUT THE TURNOUT AND THE MARGIN OF VICTORY FOR JOHN LYNCH IN CONCORD WAS VERY HIGH, HIGHER THAN HOW AL GORE DID FOUR YEARS AGO. AND WE SAW THAT PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE STATE REALLY, THAT DEMOCRATIC STRONG HOLDS CAME OUT DEMOCRATIC, WHICH WASN'T SURPRISING, BUT THE MARGIN OF VICTORY WAS REALLY ROLLED UP IN THOSE AREAS, AND THEY HELPED LYNCH A GREAT DEAL. Andy: THERE WERE EVEN SOME REPUBLICAN STRONG HOLDS LIKE RYE THAT CAME OUT FOR LYNCH AS WELL, WHICH I THINK DID SO FOR OTHER REASONS. Dante: IN MERRIMACK COUNTY RIGHT NEXT TO HOPKINTON, LIMP'S HOME TOWN, IT SEEMED TO BE A CASE WHERE BEING A FRIEND OR A NEIGHBOR WAS MORE IMPORTANT THAN PARTY LOYALTY THIS TIME AROUND. Carroll: WHAT ABOUT MORAL ISSUES, IT WAS A KEY FACTOR IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE. IT SEEMS TO HAVE ALSO PROPELLED MR. LYNCH INTO OFFICE. Andy: IT'S A TOUGH CAMPAIGN THAT HE RAN. THE RUNNING ON AN INTEGRITY PLATFORM ON A CLEAN GOVERNMENT PLATFORM IS SOMETHING THAT IS A GOOD THING TO DO WHEN THERE'S A REAL STRONG SCANDAL THAT'S OUT THERE. AND THAT SOMETHING THAT THE VOTERS KNOW A LOT ABOUT. THE SCANDALS THAT THE BENSON ADMINISTRATION HAS HAD, YEAH, I THINK THEY'RE RATHER MINOR IN TERMS OF THE KIND OF POLITICAL SCANDALS WE'VE SEEN IN THE UNITED STATES. BUT LYNCH DIDN'T HAVE A LOT OF OTHER THINGS, DIDN'T HAVE A LOT OF OTHER OPTIONS, HE CERTAINLY WASN'T GOING TO RUN ON A PRO INCOME TAX PLATFORM, SO HE HAD TO HAVE SOMETHING TO DIFFERENTIATE HIMSELF FROM BENSON. THE ETHICS ISSUE WORKED PRETTY WELL AND I THINK THERE WAS A LOT BEHIND THE SCENES THAT UNDERSTOOD WHAT IT MEMBER BUT DIDN'T TALK ABOUT. Carroll: ANY SURPRISES IN THIS RACE OR DID THIS GO ACCORDING TO THE NUMBERS AND THE POLLS THAT CAME OUT LATE IN THE GAME? Dante: I THINK WHAT WAS SURPRISING WAS LAST NIGHT LOOKING FOR A BREAK ONE WAY OR ANOTHER TOWARD THE DEMOCRATS OR TOWARD THE REPUBLICANS. IT WAS REALLY AN ELECTION ABOUT GETTING OUT YOUR BASE AND TURNING UP THE VOLUME ON YOUR BASE AS HIGH AS YOU COULD. BECAUSE LAST NIGHT WE SAW, REALLY CAME IN WAVES, FIRST DEMOCRATIC CITIES LIKE KEENE CAME IN, CONCORD, VAST MARGINS OF VICTORY FOR THE DEMOCRATS. THEN REPUBLICAN TOWNS STARTED TO COME IN, THERE WERE A FEW EXCEPTIONS AS WE NOTED. BUT REPUBLICAN TOWNS CAME OUT STRONG, AND THEY CAME OUT STRONGLY FOR REPUBLICANS. SITE WAS REALLY A RACE BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN WHO COULD GET THEIR BASE AMPED UP THE MOST. Andy: ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WAS, I THINK TYPICAL OF AN ELECTION LIKE THIS IS THAT THE UNDECIDED VOTERS BROKE FOR CHALLENGER AT THE END. THAT TYPICALLY HAPPENS IN RACES WHERE THE CHALLENGER IS NOT PARTICULARLY WELL-KNOWN. THEY BROKE, I THINK, STRONGLY FOR LYNCH AT THE END, OUR POLLS WERE SHOWING BENSON WITH A TINY LEAD, BUT FIVE PERCENT UNDECIDED, THEY BROKE FOR LYNCH. Carroll: WE TALKED ABOUT VOTER TURNOUT, NEW HAMPSHIRE BROKE SOME RECORDS, NEARLY 97,000 MORE PEOPLE VOTED TUESDAY THAN FOUR YEARS AGO. WITH ALL THE STATE'S PRECINCTS COUNTED UNOFFICIAL RETURNS INDICATED MORE THAN 675,000 PEOPLE VOTED THIS ELECTION. COULD GO HIGHER, OFFICIALS SAY THERE ARE ALWAYS SEVERAL THOUSAND PEOPLE WHO VOTE IN OTHER RACES, BUT NOT FOR PRESIDENT. NEW HAMPSHIRE TURNS FROM A RED STATE TO A BLUE STATE. WHAT HAPPENED IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE? Dante: WHAT'S HAPPENING IN NEW HAMPSHIRE GENERALLY IS THAT AT THE PRESIDENTIAL LEVEL IT'S STILL GOING TO BE A BELL WEATHER STATES, A BATTLEGROUND STATE FOUR YEARS FROM NOW, BUT AS WE'RE SEEING FROM EXIT POLICIES, PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS ARE NOT JUST DECIDED ON FISCAL OR ECONOMIC ISSUES, THEY'RE DECIDED ON CULTURAL ISSUES. CULTURALLY SPEAKING, NEW HAMPSHIRE IS MORE LIKE A BLUE STATE THAN A RED STATE. IT'S LIBERTARIAN, IN A LOT OF ITS LEANINGS, THAT MEANS IT'S FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE, WHICH AT THE STATE LEVEL MEANS IT'S REPUBLICAN. BUT AT THE PRESIDENTIAL LEVEL BEING LIBERTAIRN ON CULTURAL ISSUES MAKES THE STATE A TINGE MORE BLUE THAN RED RIGHT NOW. Carroll: I KNOW EARLY ON, NUMBERS HAD SUGGESTED THAT BUSH WAS GOING TO TAKE THE STATE AND THEN AS WE GOT CLOSER TO THE ELECTION IT SHIFTED. Andy: WELL, BUSH WAS ONLY LEADING AT ONE POINT IN THIS ENTIRE RACE WHEN WE WERE POLLING, HE WAS LEADING A YEAR AGO IN OCTOBER, BUT IN OUR EARLY OCTOBER POLL LATE SEPTEMBER EARLY OCTOBER BUSH HAD A 5-POINT LEAD. BEFORE THAT TIME KERRY HAD BEEN WINNING. ONE OF THE THINGS THAT DANTE MAKES A VERY GOOD POINT ABOUT, THAT NEW HAMPSHIRE IS CHANGING, IF YOU LOOK AT THE LAST FOUR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, BILL CLINTON WON IN 1992, VERY CLOSE, HE WON BY 10 POINTS IN '96. IN 2000, BUSH WON, BUT IF YOU ADD THE NADER VOTES TOGETHER WITH THE GORE VOTES, DEMOCRATS WOULD HAVE WON THAT RACE AS WELL. SO IN THE LAST FOUR ELECTIONS, IT'S PRETTY MUCH GONE DEMOCRATIC. THERE'S BEEN A VERY STRONG BREAK, AND IT'S NO SURPRISE IN MY MIND THAT IT CAME IN '92. '92 REPRESENTED THE END OF THE RECESSION, THE 90-91 RECESSION IN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHICH REALLY CHANGED THE NATURE OF THE ECONOMY IN THE STATE. AND I THINK THE KIND OF PEOPLE THAT HAVE MOVED IN SINCE THEN ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO VOTE DEMOCRATIC THAN THE PEOPLE WHO LIVED HERE BEFORE THEN. Dante: THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1964 THAT A DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE HAS WON A MAJORITY OF THE VOTE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. AND NOW FOR THE REPUBLICANS IT'S BEEN SINCE 1988 THAT A REPUBLICAN HAS GOTTEN 50% OF THE VOTE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. Carroll: I KNOW YOU DID A LOT OF EXIT POLLING AND THERE WAS A BIG PUSH AS FAR AS GETTING OUT THE YOUTH VOTE, BUT THAT DIDN'T SEEM TO MATERIALIZE. Andy: THE YOUTH VOTE IS ONE OF THOSE THINGS THAT EVERY ELECTION, YOU'LL HEAR A CANDIDATE SAY THIS IS THE TIME THAT THE YOUNG PEOPLE ARE GOING TO COME OUT AND MAKE HISTORY, AND IT REMINDS ME OF LUCY HOLDING THE FOOTBALL FOR CHARLIE BROWN. AND HE SAYS HONEST THIS TIME I'M GOING TO HOLD IT FOR YOU, BUT IN REALITY SHE PULLS THE FOOTBALL AWAY. THERE ARE CERTAIN TRENDS THAT OCCUR IN POLITICAL SCIENCE THAT WE HAVE KNOWN FOR YEARS, WHEN YOU LOOK AT TURNOUTS ONE OF THE TRUISMS IS THAT YOUNG PEOPLE JUST DON'T VOTE AT THE SAME RATES AS OLDER PEOPLE. TYPICALLY ALL VOTES RISE WHEN YOU BOOTH TURNOUT. I THINK WE'VE SEEN THE SAME THING HAPPEN AGAIN. WE HEAR A LOT TALK FROM THE CAMPAIGNS, WE TRY TO SPIN IT TO MAKE IT SEEM LIKE THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE, BUT THESE THINGS JUST DON'T HAPPEN, AND I THINK IT DIDN'T APPEAR AGAIN TODAY. NEW HAMPSHIRE DID SEE SOMEWHAT HIGHER TURNOUT AMONG YOUNGER PEOPLE. THEY HAD ABOUT 3% HIGHER TURNOUT AMONG 18 TO 29S THAN THEY DID IN 2000. BUT IT REMAINS TO SEE IF THAT'S TRUE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. |
| Voter Turnout Return to index of stories... |
Voter turnout smashed all New Hampshire records on Election day! Nearly 97-thousand more people voted Tuesday than 4-years ago. With all the state's precincts counted -- unofficial returns indicate that more than 675-thousand people voted this election. It could go higher. Officials say there are always several thousand people who vote in other races- but not for president. In the 2000 election , fewer than 579-thousand people cast ballots. Observers reported long lines, full parking lots and crowds of same-day registrants at polling places around the state. Q NH turns from a Red State to a Blue State. What Happened? Q Andy. Up to the last minute you thought Mr Bush would take state? Q Changing Demographics -- at play? Q What did the Numbers say to you? Q NH: 1 of 5 states that has same-day registration. How big a factor was last minute registration -- this time around? Q There was a huge push to Mobilize Young Voters. Numbers I saw suggested there was little if any impact. |
| Intro Kerry & Bush Return to index of stories... |
In the hard, bitterly-fought presidential race it was down to the wire --even here in New Hampshire where John Kerry ended up on top. George Bush won the electoral and popular vote, leading Kerry 51-percent to 48 percent. Wednesday afternoon a hoarse and emotional Kerry told supporters in Boston it was clear he could NOT win the presidency. and conceded to President Bush who gave his victory speech a short time later to supporters in Washington. Q The Election is over -- but the campaign for bringing the country together is just beginning. How effective were Mr Bush and Mr Kerry in giving the message of UNITY? Q ANDY: EXIT polls. Up til 8:00 the Kerry campaign convinced he'd be the next Pres. What Happened? Q DANTE: What did Bush do Right and what did John Kerry do Wrong? Q Presumption was that HEAVY turnout would benefit Kerry --but, both candidates mobilized their bases -- leading to the turnout. Q Only once in 40 years has a President gotten more than 50% of the popular vote. Certainly legitmizes his Presidency. Do the numbers suggest a MANDATE. Q President Bush will have Unprecedented Power given the makeup of the Congress. more republican senate and house. Political support striking. Q For all the talk of UNITY -- it's likely we could see a BATTLE sooner rather than later -- over a Supreme Court nominee given Justice Rehnquists health. Q What about those TOUCH SCREEN voting Machines. Are we likely to see any legal challenges? When will OFFICIAL votes be known? |
| Kerry & Bush Return to index of stories... |
Carroll: THE ELECTION IS OVER BUT THE CAMPAIGN FOR BRINGING THE COUNTRY TOGETHER IS JUST BEGINNING. HOW EFFECTIVE WERE MR. BUSH AND MR. KERRY IN TRYING TO GET THAT MESSAGE ACROSS? Dante: IT'S THE TYPE OF THING YOU SAY AFTER AN ELECTION. BUT WE'RE PROBABLY GOING TO HAVE A FIGHT OTHER A SUPREME COURT NOMINEE. IN SEVERAL MONTHS, MAYBE NOT EVEN SEVERAL MONTHS, WITH THE ILLNESS OF CHIEF JUSTICE REHNQUIST. WE'LL GET A SENSE THEN OF HOW BIPARTISAN EVERYONE IS GOING TO BE ONCE WE HAVE A REAL DECISION ABOUT REAL ISSUES. THIS WAS A DIVISIVE CAMPAIGN, AND WE REALLY SAW. I MEAN COMPARE KERRY AND BUSH, YOU SEE HOW THE DEMOCRAT SKPIK REPUBLICAN PARTIES HAVE BECOME MORE AND MORE CLOSELY IDENTIFIED WITH BLUE AMERICA AND RED AMERICA SO, TO SPEAK. Carroll: RIGHT. AND SPEAKING OF BLUE AND RED, I'VE HEARD IT SAID TOO THAT THE RACE PRETTY MUCH MIRRORED THE 2000 RACE, WHICH WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT WE COULD EVEN BE A BATTLE GROUND STATE NEXT TIME AS WELL, IF THE CON FIGURE RATION REMAINS THE SAME. Andy: I WOULD THINK. SO THIS WAS A DECISIVE ELECTION, DIVISIVE ELECTION, I THINK IT WAS FAIRLY DECISIVE IN BUSH'S VICTORY THIS TIME. IT WASN'T A LARGE VIC YOU THE, BUT HE WON BOTH THE ELECTORAL AND POPULAR VOTE. HE WAS THE FIRST PRESIDENT TO WIN A MAJORITY OF THE POPULAR VOTE SINCE HIS FATHER IN 1988. SO I THINK THERE'S THAT SENSE OF LEGITIMACY HERE MUCH MORE THAN WE SAW IN 2000, AND I THINK THAT WILL MAKE IT EASIER FOR DEMOCRATS TO ACCEPT THIS LOSS AND MOVE FORWARD. Carroll: WHAT ABOUT A MANDATE, BECAUSE THAT WAS THROWN OUT BY VICE PRESIDENT CHENEY. DO THOSE NUMBERS SUGGEST A MAN DATES FOR THE PRESIDENT? Dante: LOOKING AT WHAT THE PRESIDENT TALKED ABOUT ALL DURING THE CAMPAIGN, I MEAN WHAT HE SAID, I'LL KEEP YOU SAFE, MY OPPONENT WON'T KEEP ME SAFE. THERE WASN'T NECESSARILY A MANDATE ABOUT WHAT TO DO IN THE MIDDLE EAST AFTER IRAQ, THERE WASN'T A MANDATE ABOUT SOCIAL SECURITY REFORM. WAS THERE A MAN DAY FOR MORE TAX CUTS? IT'S UNCLEAR WHAT THIS PRESIDENT WAS ELECTED TO DO EXCEPT KEEP US SAFER THAN THE OTHER GUY. SO IT WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE WHETHER HE GOVERNS AS A CONSERVATIVE, GIVEN THAT HE DOESN'T HAVE TO RUN AGAIN OR WHETHER HE ACTUALLY TRIES TO RUN MORE AS A MODERATE, WHICH PEOPLE EXPECTED AFTER 2000 BUT DIDN'T PAN OUT. Andy: I THINK THIS DOES CLOSE THE BOOK ON ONE OF THE DEBATES IN POLITICAL SCIENCE CIRCLES AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS IS BEEN A REPUBLICAN REALIGNMENT, BECAUSE THIS I THINK FINALLY SIGNALS THAT THERE HAS BEEN A REPUBLICAN REALIGNMENT. THEY NOT ONLY WON THE PRESIDENCY, BUT THEY GAINED SEATS IN THE SENATE. TOM DASCHLE, THE SENATE MINORITY HERE IS NO LONGER IN OFFICE. WHETHER OR NOT THEY CAN CLAIM A MAN DATE, I THINK THAT'S A MATTER OF SPIN, BUT THEY CAN CLAIM THEY ARE THE MAJORITY PARTY AND GOVERNING PARTY OF THE COUNTRY. Carroll: AND WILL HAVE UNPRECEDENTED POWER GIVEN THE MAKEUP OF CONGRESS. Andy: HE STILL HAVEN'T DOESN'T HAVE 60 VOTES IN THE SENATE. Carroll: LET'S TALK ABOUT THE EXIT POLLS, BECAUSE ALMOST AS LATE AS 8:00 IN THE EVENING THE KERRY CAMPAIGN WAS CONVINCED HE WAS GOING TO BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT. Andy: EXIT POLLS ARE NOTORIOUSLY INACCURATE TO PREDICT ELECTIONS. THEY'RE USEFUL FOR POLITICAL SCIENTISTS TO KNOW HOW AND WHY PEOPLE VOTED DIFFERENT WAYS, BUT THEY'RE NOT VERY ACCURATE IN PREDICTING WHO'S GOING TO WIN. Dante: I THINK THE KERRY PEOPLE WERE NUMBER MOXED AND REPUBLICANS WERE NERVOUS DURING ELECTION DAY. BUT ONCE THE REAL NUMBERS STARTED COMING IN, IT WAS CLEAR THAT CARL ROVE AND COMPANY HAD DONE THEIR JOB, ESPECIALLY IN FLORIDA. Carroll: WHAT DID BUSH DO RIGHT AND JOHN KERRY DO WRONG? Andy: I THOUGHT THIS WAS A TURNOUT ELECTION, WHO EVER MOBILIZED THEIR BASE THE BEST, AND I THINK THE REPUBLICANA BETTER JOB GETTING TURNOUTS. I THINK THEY HAD MORE BANG FOR THEIR BUCK, BUT THE PEOPLE THEY IDENTIFIED TO GET OUT AND VOTE, WHERE AS THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY WAS EMPHASIZING YOUTH VOTE, WAS REALLY GETTING LESS RETURN ON THEIR GET OUT THE VOTE DOLLAR. SO I THINK IT WAS A DIFFERENTIAL TURNOUT THAT HELPED REPUBLICAN Z. Dante: THE CANDIDATE NAMED BUSH IS KNOWN FOR STICKING TO THE PLAN. AND KERRY TRIED TO MAKE THAT INTO A PROBLEM IN TERMS OF DESCRIBING HIM AS STUBBORN, UNWILLING TO CHANGE AND ADAPT TO THE FACTS, AND THERE'S AN ELEMENT OF TRUTH TO THAT. BUT IN A CAMPAIGN I THINK IF HE HAD SHOWN SIGNS OF WAVERING I THINK THAT WOULD HAVE COST HIM ON THE VERY QUALITIES THAT VOTERS LIKE MOST ABOUT HIM, THAT HE'S STEADFAST, THAT HE WILL GO AFTER THE TERRORISTS AND WON'T CHANGE HIS MIND NO MATTER WHAT. SO I THINK THAT ACTUALLY HELPED HIM, THAT WHEN THINGS GOT TOUGH, HE DIDN'T PANIC. Carroll: BEFORE WE LEAVE, I CAN'T NOT MENTION THE CONGRESSIONAL RACES. WE OF COURSE HAD JUDD GREG WHO WAS REELECTED, IN FACT ALL THE REPUBLICAN INCUMBENTS WERE BROUGHT BACK INTO OFFICE. ANY SURPRISES IN ANY OF THOSE RACES? Andy: I DON'T THINK. SO FOR AN INCUMBENT IN CONGRESS TO LOSE, IT'S HARDER TO GET THROWN OUT OF THE OLD POLIT BUREAU THAN TO GET KICKED OUT OF CONGRESS. IT'S ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE FOR AN INCUMBENT TO LOSE. Dante: CERTAIN THROUGH TRUE. FIRST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT, THOUGH, THERE'S NO REASON WHY A REPUBLICAN SHOULD BE GETTING 60, 65% AS JED BRADLEY IS DOING. HE'S BEEN A FINE CONGRESSMAN, HE'S RUN REALLY WELL, BUT IT JUST SHOWS A WEAKNESS THE DEMOCRATS' BENCH THAT THEY CAN'T COME UP WITH VIABLE CANDIDATES IN A DISTRICT THAT'S REALLY SLIGHTLY CONSERVATIVE YES, BUT CERTAINLY A SWING DISTRICT, A POSSIBLE PICKUP. THE FACTING THAT THEY JUST LET THAT GO WITHOUT MUCH OF A BATTLE TELLS YOU SOMETHING ABOUT THE PARTY. Andy: FRANKLY HAVING GRANNY D AS A CHALLENGER FOR JUDD GREG REALLY WAS A DISAPPOINTMENT TO THE PARTY THAT THEY COULD NOT PUT SOMEBODY UP, AT LEAST ONE WHO HAD HELD OFFICE ONCE IN THEIR LIVES. Carroll: WE'VE SET UP A WEBSITE TO RAISE MONEY FOR PEOPLE TO RUN. THERE'S STILL SOME COUNTING GOING ON IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE. ANY GUESSES AS TO WHEN WE'LL SEE THE OFFICIAL RESULTS. Andy: I THINK IT WILL BE QUICK. THE OHIO PROVISIONAL BALLOTS, I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE LAW IS THERE, I WOULD IMAGINE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHEN THE ABSENTEE BALLOTS FINALLY COME IN THE. Dante: THIS ISN'T LIKE FLORIDA. IT ISN'T A THOUSAND VOTES SEPARATING BUSH FROM KERRY IN ANY OF THESE STATES. AND OHIO IT WAS OVER 100,000, BUT EVEN IN NEW MEXICO AND IOWA THERE WERE LARGE MARGINS. Carroll: THANK YOU AS ALWAYS FOR YOUR PERSPECTIVES, WE APPRECIATE IT. THAT'S IT FOR THIS EDITION OF OUR PROGRAM. I'M BETH CARROLL. THANKS FOR WATCHING. WE'LL SEE YOU NEXT TIME. Captioned by Media Access Group at WGBH access.wgbh.org |
| Gregg & Granny Return to index of stories... |
As for the N-H Congressional races-- no real surprises with Republican Incumbents all keeping their seats. In the U-S Senate Race, Judd Gregg won a third term easily defeating challenger and great-grandmother Doris "Granny D" Haddock. Gregg had this to say about Granny D following his victory: Granny D may have lost but she's already moving on. She's set up a website to help people run for office without special interest money. Grannyslist-dot-US will match Congressional candidates who refuse money from special interest groups with individual donors. |
| Bradley & Nadeau Return to index of stories... |
In the first Congressional District. Incumbent Jeb Bradley easily won a 2nd term defeating Democrat Justin Nadeau. Bradley told supporters he's honored to be returning to Washington to continue working on issues like veterans affairs and the armed services. Nadeau called Bradley a gentleman and called on his backers to support Congressman Bradley. He also hinted that his interest in politics was not over and that he'd be back. |
| Bass & Hodes Return to index of stories... |
In the second Congressional District: Incumbent Charles Bass won a 6th term -- stopping a challenge from Democrat Paul Hodes. Here's what both men had to say to producer Chip Neal. CONGRESSIONAL RACES Q Did the Numbers tell us anything we didn't know last night in the state's congressional races? |
| CACR-5 Return to index of stories... |
As for the Ballot Question - on court authority -- It failed to get the 2/3rds vote necessary for passage. With 99-precincts counted. The YES vote got 57 percent The NO vote- 43 percent Q Any Suprise it went down to defeat. Lot of confusion. |
| Tomorrow Return to index of stories... |
On the next New Hampshire Outlook - Our voter journalists weigh in on the outcome of the presidential and gubernatorial election in a special edition of New Hampshire Outlook -- from the state's political library. Hope you'll join us. |
| Goodnight Return to index of stories... |
That is it for this edition of our program. I'm Beth Carroll. Thanks for watching. We'll see you next time. |
| Tonight 10:00 Return to index of stories... |
Tonight on New Hampshire Outlook: Our voter journalists weigh in on the election results in the presidential and gubernatorial races. Join us tonight at 10:00 only on New Hampshire Public Television. |
| Monday Return to index of stories... |
Monday on New Hampshire Outlook. Granite State author and humorist Rebecca Rule sits down with Pulitizer Prize-winning writer Don Murray. Monday at ten on New Hampshire Public Television. ========================= Tonight on New Hampshire Outlook. Granite State author and humorist Rebecca Rule sits down with Pulitzer Prize winning writer Don Murray. Tonight at ten on New Hampshire Public Television. |
| Web Pointer Return to index of stories... |
For information and links to our guests and interviews, connect with us on-line at nhptv.org. Join our online discussion and tell us what's on your mind. You can also find streaming video of all our broadcasts. |
| Voice Over Return to index of stories... |
Wednesday November 3rd VOCA Hello, I'm Beth Carroll, coming up, post election analysis with Andy Smith of the UNH Survey Center and Dante Scala of Saint Anselm College. Next on New Hampshire Outlook. Thursday November 4th VOCA Hello, I'm Beth Carroll, coming up, average voters like you discuss the outcome of the election and more. Voter Journalists speak next on New Hampshire Outlook. |
| key: state politics/ governemt Return to index of stories... |
NEW HAMPSHIRE OUTLOOK Air Date/Time: 11/03/04 HOST: Beth Carroll LENGTH: 26:46 Now on New Hampshire Outlook:The race for the White House is over. John Kerry's concession to George Bush came Wednesday. Just Ahead, a closer look at the numbers with our polling experts. New Hampshire has a new governor. We'll take you to John Lynch's victory party. Hello. I'm Beth Carroll. Welcome to this "Post Election" edition of New Hampshire Outlook. The Granite State voted for John Kerry but the "nation" handed President Bush 4 more years sending Kerry back to the Senate with a pledge to help the president "heal" the nation's divisions. More on that in a moment. But, first: History is made in New Hampshire as Incumbent Governor Craig Benson goes down to defeat. Challenger John Lynch unseating a first-term Governor for only the second time in 78 years. With unofficial returns Lynch defeated Benson 51% to 49% or about 13-thousand votes. It was so close the race wasn't called until early this morning. Phil Vaughn who was at Lynch's headquarters takes us through the "long" election night. Quite a different story for Governor Craig Benson who sent supporters home Election night without a comment. So, now that the dust has settled--just what do all the numbers mean. For some post-election analysis we call upon Dante Scala a political scientist at the Institute of Politics at St. Anselm College and Andy Smith from the UNH Survey Center. PRODUCER/REPORTER: NAMES OF PARTICIPANTS: Greg Ives\Lynch Supporter, Derry, Abigail Charbeneau\Lynch Supporter, Concord, Betty Tamposi\Republican Lynch Supporter, Bonnie Newman\Republican Lynch Supporter, John Lynch\ Governor-Elect, Denise Benson\NH First Lady, Fred Bramante\Chair - NH School Board, Steve Duprey\Co-chair Benson campaign, Richard Ager\NH Outlook, Jack Heath\Benson campaign advisor, Kevin Smith\Benson Press Secretary, Dante Scala\Institute of Politics, Saint Anselm College, Andy Smith\UNH Survey Center |
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NEW HAMPSHIRE OUTLOOK Air Date/Time: 11/03/04 HOST: Beth Carroll LENGTH: 26:46 Now on New Hampshire Outlook:The race for the White House is over. John Kerry's concession to George Bush came Wednesday. Just Ahead, a closer look at the numbers with our polling experts. New Hampshire has a new governor. We'll take you to John Lynch's victory party. Hello. I'm Beth Carroll. Welcome to this "Post Election" edition of New Hampshire Outlook. The Granite State voted for John Kerry but the "nation" handed President Bush 4 more years sending Kerry back to the Senate with a pledge to help the president "heal" the nation's divisions. Voter turnout smashed all New Hampshire records on Election day! Nearly 97-thousand more people voted Tuesday than 4-years ago. With all the state's precincts counted unofficial returns indicate that more than 675-thousand people voted this election. It could go higher. Officials say there are always several thousand people who vote in other races but not for president. In the 2000 election , fewer than 579-thousand people cast ballots. Observers reported long lines, full parking lots and crowds of same-day registrants at polling places around the state. PRODUCER/REPORTER: NAMES OF PARTICIPANTS: Dante Scala\Institute of Politics, Saint Anselm College, Andy Smith\UNH Survey Center, |
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NEW HAMPSHIRE OUTLOOK Air Date/Time: 11/03/04 HOST: Beth Carroll LENGTH: 26:46 Now on New Hampshire Outlook:The race for the White House is over. John Kerry's concession to George Bush came Wednesday. Just Ahead, a closer look at the numbers with our polling experts. New Hampshire has a new governor. We'll take you to John Lynch's victory party. Hello. I'm Beth Carroll. Welcome to this "Post Election" edition of New Hampshire Outlook. The Granite State voted for John Kerry but the "nation" handed President Bush 4 more years sending Kerry back to the Senate with a pledge to help the president "heal" the nation's divisions. In the hard, bitterly-fought presidential race it was down to the wire even here in New Hampshire where John Kerry ended up on top. George Bush won the electoral and popular vote, leading Kerry 5% to 48%. Wednesday afternoon a hoarse and emotional Kerry told supporters in Boston it was clear he could NOT win the presidency and conceded to President Bush who gave his victory speech a short time later to supporters in Washington. PRODUCER/REPORTER: NAMES OF PARTICIPANTS: Dante Scala\Institute of Politics, Saint Anselm College, Andy Smith\UNH Survey Center, Sen. John Kerry\ Challenger |
| key: state politics/ government Return to index of stories... |
NEW HAMPSHIRE OUTLOOK Air Date/Time: 11/03/04 HOST: Beth Carroll LENGTH: 26:46 Now on New Hampshire Outlook:The race for the White House is over. John Kerry's concession to George Bush came Wednesday. Just Ahead, a closer look at the numbers with our polling experts. New Hampshire has a new governor. We'll take you to John Lynch's victory party. Hello. I'm Beth Carroll. Welcome to this "Post Election" edition of New Hampshire Outlook. The Granite State voted for John Kerry but the "nation" handed President Bush 4 more years sending Kerry back to the Senate with a pledge to help the president "heal" the nation's divisions.As for the NH Congressional races no real surprises with Republican Incumbents all keeping their seats. In the U-S Senate Race, Judd Gregg won a third term easily defeating challenger and great-grandmother Doris "Granny D" Haddock. Granny D may have lost but she's already moving on. She's set up a website to help people run for office without special interest money. Grannyslist-dot-US will match Congressional candidates who refuse money from special interest groups with individual donors. In the first Congressional District Incumbent Jeb Bradley easily won a 2nd term defeating Democrat Justin Nadeau. Bradley told supporters he's honored to be returning to Washington to continue working on issues like veterans affairs and the armed services. Nadeau called Bradley a gentleman and called on his backers to support Congressman Bradley. He also hinted that his interest in politics was not over and that he'd be back. In the second Congressional District: Incumbent Charles Bass won a 6th term stopping a challenge from Democrat Paul Hodes. As for the Ballot Question on court authority, it failed to get the 2/3rds vote necessary for passage. With 99-precincts counted. The yes vote got 57% The NO vote 43% NAMES OF PRODUCER: NAMES OF PARTICIPANTS: Dante Scala\Institute of Politics, Saint Anselm College, Andy Smith\UNH Survey Center, Sen. Judd Gregg\ New Hampshire, Rep. Jeb Bradley\ New Hampshire, Rep. Charles Bass\ New Hampshire, Paul Hodes\ Challenger |
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Tonight on New Hampshire Outlook. . Tonight at 10pm on New Hampshire Public Television. |
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Wednesday, November 3, 2004: Post election coverage with Andy & Dante. We started taping shortly after 5pm. After the show we had to tape promos that would air through Monday. We finished by 6pm. |
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