NH Outlook Talk Show , Sunday, 9/7/2008
script iconSUN/MON PROMO script iconThanks/Goodbye
script iconNEXT PROMO!! script iconWeb Promo
script iconPreshow script iconpolls
script iconHello/Intro Guests script iconKey: State Politics/ Government
script iconPrimary script iconKey: National Politics/Government
script iconPres Race script iconRelease Forms

script iconSUN/MON PROMO
Return to index of stories... 		On the next New Hampshire Outlook:
NH Votes 2008:
What's next for the presidential candidates fresh off the national conventions.
Sunday morning at 9:30.
On the next New Hampshire Outlook:
NH Votes 2008:
What's next for the presidential candidates fresh off the national conventions.
Monday night at 6:00.
script iconNEXT PROMO!!
Return to index of stories... 		Coming up NH Votes 2008 coverage.
The analysts on the campaigns and what's ahead following the conventions.
Next on New Hampshire Outlook.
NH Votes 2008 coverage.
The analysts on what's ahead following the conventions.
Next on New Hampshire Outlook.
script iconPreshow
Return to index of stories... 		A preview of Tuesday's NH Primary.
Plus, a look ahead to November and the Presidential Race.
script iconHello/Intro Guests
Return to index of stories... 		Our "NH Votes 2008" coverage takes us to the New Hampshire Political Library in Concord housed in the State Library.
It's a fitting backdrop - as we talk presidential politics -- fresh off the democratic and republican conventions.
Hello, I'm Beth Carroll. Welcome to NH Outlook.
A status report on the race for the White house in a moment.
But first, a look ahead to Tuesday's Congressional Primaries in New Hampshire.
Here to talk about the 2008 Vote:
Andy Smith, associate professor of Political Science at the University of New Hampshire and director of the UNH Survey Center;
Dean Spiliotes, political analyst and founder of the "NHpoliticalcapital.com" blog; and Outlook's political reporter Richard Ager.
Welcome.
script iconPrimary
Return to index of stories... 		NH PRIMARY
Q DEAN: Let's look at the NH ELECTORATE. What's the breakdown in terms of Democrats and Republicans.
Q DEAN: Has NH gone BLUE?
Q What does that PORTEND for the 2008 VOTE?
Q Let's TALK ABOUT the 1ST district
4 REPUBLICANS are looking to take on Congresswoman Carol Shea Porter.
Jeb Bradley, John Stephen, Geoff Michael, and David Jarvis.
DEAN: Anything to say about the 2 candidates we HAVEN'T heard of?
Q RICHARD: Give us some Historical Context. This is a rematch between JEB BRADLEY & JOHN STEPHEN.
Q ANDY: Paint us a picture of the make up of CD-1.is it more conservative than the 2nd District?
Q Do CONSERVATIVES show up for primaries -- and if so, WHO benefits - STEPHEN.
Q ANDY: You've done some Polling on the RACE.what does it show?
Is there a gender divide in the matchups. More MEN for Bradley, More WOMEN for Shea Porter.
Q DEAN/richard: This race has gotten NASTY. Jeb Bradley under FIRE for some of his attack ads against Stephen.
Do the negative ads HELP or HURT?
Q What are the ISSUES we're seeing in this race. BATTLE for VET support. Carol Shea Porter ADS and Bradley.
*****
Q LET's look at the 2ND DISTRICT. 4 Republicans are vying for the opportunity to face off against Congressman Paul Hodes.
Jim Steiner, Bob Clegg, Grant Bosse, and Jennifer Horn.
ANDY: Isn't THIS largely viewed as a race between State Senator BOB CLEGG and Radio Show Host JENNIFER Horn?
That's what your POLLING has focused on. Give us some insights on what your SURVEY found?
Q NAME recognition a problem for Both?
77% of District 2 voters don't knew who Horn is, 62% aren't familiar with Clegg.
Q RICHARD: NOT seeing as many TV ads in the CD-2 Race, an indication the big money is in the FIRST DISTRICT?
Q DEAN: Speaking of MONEY. Horn was leading in April/ what about 2nd QUARTER fundraising.
Whoever RUNS.will need lots of money.PAUL HODES has sizeable warchest.
Q Congress has an all-time low approval rating of 9% / Hodes is INCUMBENT. Is he vulnerable?
script iconPres Race
Return to index of stories... 		Presidential Politics getting the real BUZZ.
Coming off the Back to Back Conventions.
Q John McCain.needed to give the speech of a lifetime. Did he accomplish what he needed to?
Q How did it stack up against Barack Obama's performance in Denver before 80-thousand?
Q McCain was Blasted for his SARAH PALIN pick BUT, she not only sealed the deal with conservatives; She fired them up.
Q PALIN has changed dynamics. Does she HURT or HELP McCain?
Q Base loves her -- but, will independent VOTERS fall in love with her?
Q How will Sarah Palin play in New Hampshire? Specifically, how will she play with Hillary's voters? Direct appeal to women?
Q McCain mantra had been that Obama was Too Liberal, Too Inexperienced, too risky to sit in Oval Office. Does the PALIN pick negate that strategy?
Q Is VP now more important?
Q Barack.historic nominee -- McCain couldn't get into that narrative.now he can with historic VP choice.
Q Political conventions show Americans the differences in platforms. The democratic convention had record high viewership -- far fewer for the Republican convention.
Did Republicans make up the ground they needed to?
Q RICHARD: How is McCain viewed in NH?
Q DEAN: McCain fared well in 2000 with Independents. With a changing political landscape in NH for 2008 -- is he still likely to see that support?
Q Dean: In your blog.NHpoliticalcapital.com.you mention not much talk of policy at rep. convention -- but more of a biographical face on the proceedings. GOOD STRATEGY?
Q Has Barack Obama received the oft mentioned CONVENTION BOUNCE? CNN poll shows its still a dead heat BEFORE and AFTER convention.
Q Will McCain pick up speed after the GOP Convention?
Q SO, lets drag out the SCORECARD -- who's ahead in NH-- and why?
Q Palin WENT negative in her convention speech. Will this force the OBAMA campaign to follow SUIT.slash & burn politics
Q Political Conventions show Americans the difference in Party Platforms. How would you sum up what DEMOCRATS and REPUBLICANS are running on?
ECONOMY.
Q Most people feel the ECONOMY is in shambles --- the Iraq War remains unpopular -- & Fewer than 1 in 5 believe country is on the right track.
IT Would seem the 2008 Election is about the need for change? Is that why BOTH camps are postioning themselves as CHANGE AGENTS.
Q Easiest option is to CHANGE the party in the White House -- So, how does McCAIN make it clear that his FIRST term won't be BUSH's 3rd TERM.
Q HOW does OBAMA stop the REPUBLICANS momentum.
WAR
ANDY: On issue of the WAR.what did the most recent UNH SURVEY center poll show about NH voters?
Where do NH Voters stand on issue of REMOVING troops?
Q MEDIA
Alaska crawling with reporters.
2 GOP conventions.one media is reporting with protestors arrested, and Palin questions and the other delegates is seeing. FAIR?
CHANGING POLITICAL LANDSCAPE
Q WE saw a democratic sweep in NH in 2006 -- but, VOTERS can no longer cast straight-ticket ballots. Does that mean DEMOCRATS have less of an advantage as some republicans suggest this time around?
====
SENATE REFERENCE:
Senator John Sununu NOT at the GOP convention -- he's got his hands full with a tough RE-ELECTION campaign.
Another REMATCH -- against Gov Jeanne Shaheen -- who he faced in 2002 and beat by a small margin.
q ANDY.where do things stand now?
Q This is being billed as one of the most hotly contested races in the country.
Q LOT of National MOney in this race?
Q Democrats are far more enthusiastic about voting this fall than Republicans. What will that mean for the GOP's congressional candidates in November?
Q With 9 weeks til election -- what can we expect to see FROM Obama camp? McCain camp?
Q Andy -- what can we expect from the polls?
script iconThanks/Goodbye
Return to index of stories... 		That's all the time we have.
Thanks for watching New Hampshire Outlook.
I'm Beth Carroll.
I'll see you next time.
script iconWeb Promo
Return to index of stories... 		Did you have a reaction to any of the stories or interviews featured in this program?
Did we miss anything or do you have suggestions for future Outlook espisodes?
If so, we want to hear from you.
Drop us an email at nhoutlook@nhptv.org.
As always, you can find these stories and more online at nhptv.org/outlook.
Connect with us online.
New Hampshire Outlook is available online on demand at nhptv.org/outlook.
We've been streaming our programs since Outlook premiered in September 2000.
Whether you want to watch this show again, email it to a friend, search and watch past programs or get more information on thousands of stories and topics, you'll find it all at nhptv.org/outlook.
script iconpolls
Return to index of stories... 		REAL CLEAR POLITICS
March 21, 2008
NH Senate Poll Seesaws
Former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen is back atop a Republican-leaning poll in her rematch against GOP Senator John Sununu, three months after the same survey showed Sununu leading by a healthy margin. The survey once again reasserts Shaheen as a top Democratic takeover opportunity.
The poll, taken by American Research Group, a Republican-leaning firm that has done work for former GOP congressmen in the state, was conducted 3/14-17 among 541 registered voters. 30% of the sample was made up of Republicans, 29% of Democrats and the remaining 41% of undeclared voters. Shaheen and Sununu were tested.
General Election Matchup
Shaheen 47 / 76 / 1 / 61
Sununu 33 / 12 / 81 / 13
The poll is a dramatic departure from December, when Sununu led by eleven points, a survey that was at odds with every other poll out at the time. Most have suspected that Shaheen leads by a wide margin, as another well-respected polling institution showed in February. Nothing in particular has happened in the last three months that would have robbed Sununu of so much support, making the December poll seem like an outlier.
Shaheen raised money at a very fast clip in the fourth quarter, finishing the year with $1.1 million, though she still trailed Sununu's $3.4 million in the bank. National Democrats are sure to play heavily in New Hampshire, which will also be a crucial presidential battleground state. And Shaheen faces a simply better landscape: After veering to the right in 2002, no state has experienced an anti-Republican backlash quite like New Hampshire. Just ask the Republican governor, two Republican members of Congress and eighty-something state legislators who are no longer in office thanks to the 2006 Democratic wave.
Added to Virginia and New Mexico, where Democrats are strongly favored to take over GOP-held seats, Shaheen's chances in New Hampshire start to paint a picture of a large Democratic majority after November. Still, the party seems likely to come up short of the magic number 60, unless they can find a way to win every competitive state and miraculously pull out upsets in places like Oklahoma and Mississippi. The Democratic Party looks in good shape this year, especially in New Hampshire, but wins in those two states seem a stretch, to say the least.
Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Send to a Friend | Email Author | Print | Permalink |
Buzz up!
Login | Register | RSS
**
now hAMPSHIRE.COM
While the recent poll showing Senator Obama with a slim lead in the state has made a splash, the University of New Hampshire released data today about another race between two candidates exclusive to New Hampshire. Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen has been pushing to claim Republican Senator John Sununu’s seat in Washington and the newly released poll indicate a close contest.
The poll shows that the race is getting closer. Back in July of last year, Shaheen had 54% of likely voters on her side and Sununu only 38% according to the poll center. Now, Shaheen has fallen to 46% and Sununu has risen to 42% in July of this year. What was once a 16 point lead has fallen to a 4 point lead.
The center reported that , “Shaheen runs strongest among Democrats, liberals, voters with high levels of education, young voters, and non-religious voters,” in a statement. It claimed that Sununu, “runs strongest among Republicans, conservatives, older voters, and voters with lower levels of education.”
Five-hundred-and-nineteen randomly selected NH adults were interviewed in mid-July for the poll.
Favorability ratings were also polled and Sununu rose from about 40% favorability to nearly 55% favorability since September of last year. Shaheen was at about 55% approval last September and has fallen to about 52%.
The full report can be viewed at The UNH Survey Center’s Website: http:/www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2008_summer_cong72308.pdf
Add new comment
script iconKey: State Politics/ Government
Return to index of stories... 		NEW HAMPSHIRE OUTLOOK Air Date/Time: 9/7/2008
HOST: Beth Carroll Length: 25:05
A preview of Tuesday's NH Primary. Plus, a look ahead to November and the Presidential Race. Our "NH Votes 2008" coverage takes us to the New Hampshire Political Library in Concord housed in the State Library. It's a fitting backdrop - as we talk presidential politics -- fresh off the democratic and republican conventions. Hello, I'm Beth Carroll. Welcome to NH Outlook.A status report on the race for the White house in a moment. But first, a look ahead to Tuesday's Congressional Primaries in New Hampshire. Here to talk about the 2008 Vote: Andy Smith, associate professor of Political Science at the University of New Hampshire and director of the UNH Survey Center; Dean Spiliotes, political analyst and founder of the "NHpoliticalcapital.com" blog; and Outlook's political reporter Richard Ager. Welcome.
PRODUCER/REPORTER: Beth Carroll NAME OF PARTICIPANTS: Andy Smith \UNH Survey Center, Dean Spiliotes\Founder, NHPoliticalCapital.com, Richard Ager \NH Outlook.
script iconKey: National Politics/Government
Return to index of stories... 		NEW HAMPSHIRE OUTLOOK Air Date/Time: 9/7/2008
HOST: Beth Carroll Length: 25:05
A preview of Tuesday's NH Primary. Plus, a look ahead to November and the Presidential Race. Our "NH Votes 2008" coverage takes us to the New Hampshire Political Library in Concord housed in the State Library. It's a fitting backdrop - as we talk presidential politics -- fresh off the democratic and republican conventions. Hello, I'm Beth Carroll. Welcome to NH Outlook.A status report on the race for the White house in a moment. But first, a look ahead to Tuesday's Congressional Primaries in New Hampshire. Here to talk about the 2008 Vote: Andy Smith, associate professor of Political Science at the University of New Hampshire and director of the UNH Survey Center; Dean Spiliotes, political analyst and founder of the "NHpoliticalcapital.com" blog; and Outlook's political reporter Richard Ager. Welcome.
PRODUCER/REPORTER: Beth Carroll NAME OF PARTICIPANTS: Andy Smith \UNH Survey Center, Dean Spiliotes\Founder, NHPoliticalCapital.com, Richard Ager \NH Outlook.
script iconRelease Forms
Return to index of stories... 		Have release forms -- Preprimary and Presidental Race -- Dean Spiliotes
Copyright © 2024
All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. AP contributed to this report.
Associated Press text, photo, graphic, audio and/or video material shall not be published, broadcast, rewritten for broadcast or publication or redistribution directly or indirectly in any medium. Neither these AP materials nor any portion thereof may be stored in a computer except for personal and non-commercial use. AP will not be held liable for any delays, inaccuracies, errors or omissions therefrom or in the transmission or delivery of all or any part thereof or for any damages arising from any of the foregoing.