NH Outlook Talk Show , Sunday, 1/11/2009
script iconSUN/MON PROMO script iconBIZ TAXES DOWN
script iconNEXT PROMO!! script iconSTATE RAISES
script iconPreshow script iconBUDGET
script iconHello/Intro script icongambling
script iconIntro Legis Reax script iconBALLS no go
script iconIntroDiscussion script iconkey: Community Politics/ Government
script iconDiscussion script iconkey: Community Politics/ Government
script iconThanks/Goodbye script iconkey: Community Politics/ Government
script iconWeb Promo script iconkey: Economy
script iconNOTES script iconkey: Employment
script iconYear ender  


script iconSUN/MON PROMO
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The Inauguration of Governor John Lynch.
His 3rd term agenda -- can he get it done
in this economic downturn? The Journalists weigh in.
script iconNEXT PROMO!!
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The swearing in of Governor John Lynch.
Highlights and analysis of his 3rd term agenda.
script iconPreshow
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The Inauguration of Governor Lynch and
reaction to his 2009 Agenda.
script iconHello/Intro
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Hello, I'm Beth Carroll. Welcome to this special edition of NH Outlook -- the Inauguration of Governor John Lynch.
We're coming to you from the State House in Concord where the Governor will take the oath of office for a Third time.
Inside Representatives Hall -- before a joint session of the Legislature -- and with a crowd of past governors, dignataries, and family looking on --the democrat from Hopkinton outlined his agenda.
We bring you now highlights of the Governor's Inaugural address:
script iconIntro Legis Reax
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Reaction to an Inauguration Speech is always swift.
How do those on the other side of the aisle feel about the Governor's agenda.
Outlook's Richard Ager caught up with some after the ceremony. to get their thoughts.
script iconIntroDiscussion
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We've heard from lawmakers -- now we turn to veteran statehouse reporters: Kevin Landrigan of The Telegraph and Tom Fahey from the Union Leader for their READ on the Governor's speech.
Q Governor Lynch goes into his 3rd term -- much like he did his second term with Democrats in power.
What will that mean for the agenda he's outlined?
script iconDiscussion
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Q democrats winning back to back majorities.and back in charge when the Legislature convened this past wednesday?
Q I heard the term.historical state budget crisis. How does this compare to other tight years??
q Budget issues dominate -- but other issues likely to come up.gay marriage, from abolishing the death penalty to introducing legalized gambling
Q Norelli said $100 million still needs to be cut. WHERE??
Q introduce a bill to reduce the education adequacy payment formula that was set in the last session which she believes the change will save taxpayers $120 million
Q What about retirement system?
q Dec 11-12 Ice storm
2009 legislative session began Jan 7th on Wednesday?
Q Expectations from the Obama Stimulus Plan -- Jeanne Shaheen formally makes history today as she's sworn in as New Hampshire's first female senator and the first Democrat elected in 33 years.
picture of Gregg who escorted her.
Q taxes and fees were $121.5 million less than forecast business taxes are off
Q Tom you wrote: EXPECT TO HEAR more talk about four-day work weeks at state offices next year.
Q NH Manufacturing firms.worried Legislature will try to balance state budget on their backs. COULD we see increase in business taxes?
Q Could we see taxes raised in this economic climate?
Q Back in 2007 -- Gov Lynch said."our economy is strong -- must preserve what's special about NH by recommitting ourselves to LCHIP -- will THIS be on the chopping block?
The Land and Community Heritage Investment Program will not enter any new commitments for 2009, and will repay the general fund $3 million of 2008 fiscal year funds.
legislative and judicial branch reductions and an additional lapse from the retirement system valued at about $2.6 million; authorize
89 million remains in the Rainy Day Fund, those savings should be used only as a last resort.
Q Will we see another stab at a constitutional amendment targeting education AID?
***
CONCORD, N.H. - After winning back-to-back majorities,
Democrats will be in charge this week when the New Hampshire
Legislature convenes to organize and witness Gov. John Lynch's
inauguration to a third, two-year term.
Lawmakers open the legislative session Wednesday to take care of
mostly organizational issues. They will reconvene Thursday for
Lynch's inauguration.
- New Hampshire's manufacturing firms are
worried that the state Legislature will try to balance the state
budget on their backs. As lawmakers head back to Concord this week,
manufacturers are reminding them they make up a sizable share of
the state's economy.
Gov. John Lynch said Friday Congress’s failure to increase heating aid for low-income families is “a national disgrace.”
Let the record show that nobody has proposed increasing business taxes – the business profits or business enterprise tax — or taxes that would affect business, like the rooms and meals tax. But that isn’t making business groups breathe any easier.
“I don’t think anyone wants that as a first option, but after all the various plans go down, and it’s the 11th hour and the 59th minute, it will be the last thing standing, so everybody will hold their noses and vote for it,” said Juvet.
Would lawmakers even dare raise taxes in this economic climate? N.H. Sen. Lou D’Allesandro, who chairs the Senate Finance Committee, thinks that they can’t. If his favorite revenue source – increased gambling – doesn’t pass, the state will just have to cut into the bone of the budget, he said.
retirment
reforming the retirement system and providing school funding, with an obligatory stab at another constitutional amendment targeting educational aid.
IN 2007 Lynch: Our economy is strong now, and we must act to secure that prosperity for the future.
We must preserve what is special about New Hampshire by recommitting ourselves to the Land and Community Heritage Investment Program.
CONCORD, N.H. - New Hampshire revenues continue to lag
behind estimates.
Tax receipts were $21 million below estimates in December,
bringing the total shortfall for the year to $121.5 million. The
two biggest hits to the treasury were from taxes on business, off
$20 million, and real estate sales, $5 million below estimates.
The state got an extra $5 million from a combination hike in the
tobacco tax and cut in a wine discount given to retailers.
The state received almost $182 million for the month.
tom"s article
DESPERATELY SEEKING CUTS: Senate Finance and Ways and Means committee members roll up their sleeves on the budget Wednesday. They start with a briefing on the economy and state revenues by Steven Norton, executive director of the New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies.
Norton has made this presentation to the Business and Industry Association and a number of municipal groups. He goes through state spending patterns, how this economy compares to slumps that preceded it, and lays out a series of options on cutting spending and boosting revenues, otherwise known as fees and taxes.
On Jan. 22, the House Finance and Ways and Means committees will spend hours on economic briefings. They'll hear testimony on the national economy by Robert Tannenwald of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston; the state economy by UNH professor Ross Gittell; real estate by Russ Thibeault of Applied Economic Research; labor markets and layoff responses by Annette Nielsen and Roy Duddy. Also on the agenda is Dennis Delay of the NH Center for Public Policy Studies, to outline the effect all this will have on state revenue flow.
script iconThanks/Goodbye
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By the way -- The Governor has decided against an Inaugural ball -- which is not unusual in a 3rd term.
He said it didn't seem the right thing to do given the ecomomic downturn.
That wraps up our coverage here at the State House in Concord.on this INAUGURATION day.
Thanks for watching.
I'm Beth Carroll.
I'll see you next time.
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script iconNOTES
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CONCORD – Lawmakers have decided not to act on Gov. John Lynch's proposal to save up to $2 million by deferring pay raises for state workers not represented by unions.
To kill the raises, the Legislature has to act before the end of the year. Last week House and Senate leaders reserved next Wednesday as a day when legislators could return for the money-saving move.
But yesterday, Speaker of the House Terie Norelli and Senate President Sylvia Larsen said they will not call lawmakers to Concord next week to pass a bill rescinding the raise. Dec. 17 had been set as a potential date for action, but the two said the issue was not ready to bring before 424 lawmakers.
Lynch, working to close an estimated $90 million budget deficit, wants to hold back raises for about 5,000 full- and part-time workers in the executive, legislative and judicial branch who are not under collective bargaining agreements. He warned yesterday if the raises take effect, the state will have to find $2 million in budget cuts.
Original estimates were that savings would be in the $500,000 range, but that figure included only appointees and non-union workers such as those in supervisor roles.
Other cuts Lynch proposed that will need legal changes are a $441,000 cut in the court system, $700,000 in legislative reserves, recovery of almost $17 million in other funds tucked in other areas of the budget.
All state workers are slated to get a 5.5 percent raise on Jan. 1. Roughly 15,000 who are covered by collective bargaining agreements have the raise spelled out in their contracts. That can't be revised without workers' approval, and they have balked at changes.
The Legislature can vote to withhold the raises from non-union workers, ranging from legislative aides to political appointees, but Larsen said she doesn't want to act unless all workers are treated equally.
Lynch agreed it would be best to move at the same time on all workers.
"But if that cannot happen, it would be fiscally responsible and set an important example to move forward with legislation deferring the pay increase for unclassified and non-classified employees before increases take effect Jan. 1," he said in a statement.
Sen. Peter E. Bragdon, R-Milford, agrees with the governor that action needs to be taken soon.
"We need to deal with this situation," he said.
Norelli, D-Portsmouth, and Larsen, D-Concord issued a joint statement saying talks with organized labor will continue. Cuts in payroll and potential layoffs are still possible, they said.
Norelli said she hopes union and non-union employees find ways "to avoid more drastic measures, including the layoffs that are affecting other states and private industry in today's difficult economy."
Larsen said she and Norelli are committed to finding payroll savings, "but we need to have the full participation of all state employees in order to do so in a meaningful and fair manner."
The Legislature can take up the issue in January, but it will be difficult to take back raises that are already in paychecks. Savings erode with each week that goes by without action.
Legislative leaders gave workers in their branch substantial raises two years ago, with some workers seeing pay go up by 45 percent. The raises were paid for out of a salary fund that had accumulated substantial balance. Leaders in the House and Senate said at the time that workers had fallen behind median pay levels over the previous
GAMBLING
CONCORD – A coalition of gambling interests, business owners and labor today called for video slot machines at Rockingham Park race track, saying they will bring the state treasury $200 million a year.
The “Fix It Now New Hampshire” group said that if the Legislature acts before June to allow what it called “limited gaming,” machines would be up and running within seven months at a temporary facility on track property in Salem.
Millennium Gaming, which holds the option to purchase the track on the Massachusetts border, plans to begin a two-year $450 million upgrade if slots are approved. The company operates three casinos in Las Vegas and one in western Pennsylvania.
Anti-gambling forces labeled the Rockingham plan as “the same tired and discredited arguments.”
Gambling measures have been offered as the solution to state budget problems for the past decade. Noting the state faces tough budget years through 2011, Rockingham Park president Ed Callahan said slots could be “a reliable and sustainable source of revenue and a critical part of a solution to the budget shortfall this year and in years go come.”
Callahan estimated that more than 70 percent of customers will come from outside the state.
The coalition said the boost in attendance and revenue would allow Rockingham to reintroduce thoroughbred racing, which it ended five years ago. The track would continue running a Texas Hold’em poker room that hosts games to benefit charities.
Chuck Rolecek, president and CEO of Premier Corp. in Bedford, is chair of Fix It Now. He said the group will leave it up to lawmakers to decide whether slots ought to be allowed at other facilities in the state.
Members of the coalition who spoke to reporters said gaming here would allow the state to recapture gambling revenues that now leave with gamblers headed to other states.
With Massachusetts facing serious budget pressure, it is bringing back plans to open state-run casinos, they said, making it more important for New Hampshire to act quickly and establish customer loyalty.
Bills introduced so far in the Legislature also call for casinos in the North Country, and legalized slots at dog tracks.
Rolecek noted that opinion surveys have shown New Hampshire voters would rather have expanded gambling than increases in property taxes or new taxes on sales or income.
Gov. John Lynch has not supported expanded gambling, but hasn’t closed the door. He said he needs to be convinced that expansion will not have a negative effect on the state’s quality of life.
The Granite State Coalition Against Expanded Gambling chairman Jim Rubens said the gambling industry, “thinks that our Legislature is ready to trade our state's reputation, healthy quality of life, and lowest national crime rate, for a gambling tax that will make everyone in our state poorer, and a handful of casino and slot machine owners much richer.”
A labor council with 7,000 members backs Millennium. Ed Foley, president of the Building and Construction Trades Council, said his members also worry about rising property taxes, and see gaming as a way to keep taxes low and provide jobs. Foley said, adding that the use of union labor on construction has been part of his discussions with Millennium.
Sen. Ted Gatsas, R-Manchester, who has sponsored gambling bills in the past, said the $200 million revenue estimate matches roughly what he has calculated slots would bring, but he’s not signing on with Fix It Now. He said control of video slot gaming should be in the hands of the state, not private interests.
“The state can do it without the race tracks, but the race tracks can’t do it without the state. So, I think the lion’s share of revenues should come to the people of New Hampshire,” he said.
GAS TAX
Gas tax increase for NH is floated
By TOM FAHEY
State House Bureau Chief
Friday, Dec. 5, 2008
CONCORD – Lawmakers from both parties say the state needs to increase its gasoline tax to keep highways maintained, but Gov. John Lynch is not convinced of that yet.
Lynch said this week he hasn't changed his stance against a gas tax hike, but he left room to be persuaded it is the right move.
He said the state needed to figure out how much highway work needed to be done and how much it would cost before talking about raising revenue. He noted a federal economic stimulus package was expected to send money for highway and bridge construction to all states.
"That may be part of the overall financing package going forward," Lynch said.
Transportation Commissioner George Campbell told lawmakers last month that without spending cuts or new revenue, the state highway fund faces a deficit of more than $1 billion over the next 10 years. The state's new highway plan slashed $4 billion in projects down to $2 billion.
The state's Highway Trust Fund, dedicated to highway upkeep and construction, is fed by the gas tax and motor vehicle registration fees. With drivers traveling fewer miles, buying less gas and keeping cars longer, the fund is about 7 percent behind projections.
Rep. David Campbell, D-Nashua, said the costs of highway and bridge materials rose by 60 percent over the past four years, cutting the highway fund's buying power.
He is sponsoring a bill to raise the state's 18-cent gas tax over several years and dedicate the increased revenue to highway expenses. The state would share a portion of the money with local government. Each 1-cent increase would raise about $8 million, Rep. Campbell said.
"I personally don't see any way to fill this hole without raising a tax that hasn't been raised since 1991. Nobody likes the 'T word,' but at some point, it becomes the only option," he said.
Lynch said he thinks it's too early to talk about a tax hike.
He said he'll take the same approach to highways he took with the state turnpike system: determine what work needs to be done, then discuss how to fund it. For turnpikes, the solution was a toll increase.
"I continue to work with Commissioner Campbell in terms of identifying exactly what our critical needs are as a state," he said this week. "Then we'll have a discussion about ways, including creative ways of financing those needs."
Lynch is not so adamant that he would promise to veto a gas tax bill. He said he prefers to watch important bills work their way through the Legislature, since their details change shape as the House and Senate put their stamp on them.
Rep. Campbell, who chaired a joint committee study of the highway fund this fall, said he sees a lot of work ahead persuading everyone from Lynch to the average voter.
"There are a lot of pieces to this puzzle, but the gap is so big, I don't see any way we can bridge it without some form of added revenue in the form of a gas tax," he said.
script iconYear ender
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YEAR END-NEWS
NH news '08: Weather, crime, economy, politics
CONCORD, N.H. - Weather, crime, the economy and politics
made for a shocking, sobering and - for some, at least briefly -
uplifting year in New Hampshire.
Two of the year's most shocking news stories came a week apart
this month: the most widespread power outage in state history
followed a week later by the state's first death sentence in a half
century.
The political blockbuster of the year came on its eighth day
when Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, beaten by Sen. Barack Obama five
days earlier in Iowa, defied the polls and won New Hampshire's
Democratic presidential primary. The GOP primary also featured a
comeback kid as Sen. John McCain beat rivals Mitt Romney, Mike
Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani.
And like Americans everywhere, New Hampshire residents watched
the housing market tank and foreclosures rise before a nationwide
and then worldwide credit and banking crisis began unfolding.
script iconBIZ TAXES DOWN
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State revenue slump continues
By TOM FAHEY
State House Bureau Chief
Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2008
CONCORD – State revenues continued their slide in November, coming in $28 million below projections and trailing last year's performance by 20 percent.
Through the first five months of this fiscal year, the state is $100 million behind its budget plan on revenues from taxes and other sources such as liquor, lottery and tobacco sales.
The state expected to have $773 million in revenues at this point in the fiscal year, which began July 1. It has taken in $672 million, 13 percent below its plan and 7 percent behind last year's pace.
Taxes paid by businesses so far are 22 percent below last year's levels, and $58 million short of this year's budget targets.
November is historically a slow revenue month because business tax payments are concentrated in other months. Even so, tax refunds to businesses actually exceeded the amount of business tax paid last month, according to a monthly report by the Department of Administrative Services. Companies are entitled to refunds if their payments on estimated tax bills are too high.
The current housing slump is reflected in real estate transfer tax receipts, which are $23 million short of the budget plan, and 21 percent below last year's levels.
Administrative Services Commissioner Linda Hodgdon said the November figures don't sway her opinion that the year will end with a $250 million revenue shortfall. She said December, which closes a fiscal quarter and typically provides a large share of annual revenues, will serve as a better basis for reviewing this year's outlook.
Gov. John Lynch, attending a National Governor's Association meeting this week, has made roughly $160 million in budget cuts to address the shortfalls.
script iconSTATE RAISES
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CONCORD – The state's 20,000 full-time and permanent, part-time employees will start receiving a 5.5 percent pay raise next month, even though Gov. John Lynch wanted to delay the raise for the roughly 5,000 who are not unionized.
House Speaker Terie Norelli, D-Portsmouth, and Senate President Sylvia Larsen, D-Concord, issued statements Wednesday that the only acceptable deal would be one that applied to all employees.
"We remain committed to achieving additional budget cuts from the state employee payroll but we need to have the full participation of all state employees in order to do so in a meaningful and fair manner," Larsen said.
Lynch and the Legislature face a $95 million shortfall that they must erase by June 30.
The Legislature must approve delays in raises for state employees. In October, Lynch said he wanted to delay the next raise, which goes into effect in January, for the 5,000 employees who work for the Legislature, the judicial branch or the politically-appointed managers throughout state government. Those employees are not represented by collective bargaining units.
This delay would save an estimated $2 million
The other roughly 15,000 workers are unionized. Delaying their raises, which would save about $5 million, would also require the consent of the three unions that represent them, the largest being the State Employees Association.
Lynch has been in private talks with union leaders, who publicly have balked at having to wait an extra year to get the increase.
House Speaker Terie Norelli held out hope there could be some agreement in the future.
"At this time, there is no action for us to take next Wednesday, but we hope the State Employees Association, other labor groups and non-union state employees will continue to work collaboratively to find cost-savings options in an effort to avoid more drastic measures, including the layoffs that are affecting other states and private industry in today's difficult economy," Norelli said.
Once the raises go into effect, however, it's unlikely the Legislature would ever vote to take them away.
In September 2007, the 100 employees in the Legislature got pay raises as high as 54 percent after a private consultant's study concluded that some were underpaid for the jobs they did compared to peers in other states.
Lynch said getting the delay for the non-union employee group would be better than doing nothing at all.
"As a matter of fairness, it would be best if the deferral of pay increases for all state employees could take place at the same time but if that cannot happen it would be fiscally responsible and set an important example to move forward with legislation deferring the pay increase for unclassified and non-classified employees before increases take effect Jan.1,'' Lynch said in a statement.
script iconBUDGET
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Gov. Lynch delivers spending cuts as national economic downturn continues
For Immediate Release
Fiscal Committee Approves Financial Strategy As Part of Continuing Efforts to Address National Economic Slowdown
CONCORD - Gov. John Lynch today presented the Joint Legislative Fiscal Committee with a financial strategy to address a projected revenue shortfall and help ensure the state has a balanced budget by the end of the current fiscal year.
"We are in the midst of an unprecedented global economic crisis. We are in the midst of an unprecedented global economic crisis. When we crafted this budget 18 months ago, no one could have predicted the depths to which our nation's economy would sink," Gov. Lynch said.
"This crisis has led to budget shortfalls in states across the nation. And while we are better positioned than most states, New Hampshire is not immune to the global economic conditions. The challenge before us is very real and very significant," Gov. Lynch said.
The fiscal committee voted to approve two Executive Orders issued by Gov. Lynch.
The first Executive Order includes specific agency reductions totaling $53.6 million. As part of these reductions, The Department of Environmental Services will be deferring new state aid grants until the next biennium, which will save $3.3 million.
The Land and Community Heritage Investment Program will not enter any new commitments for 2009, and will repay the general fund $3 million of 2008 fiscal year funds. The University and Community College systems both agreed to pay their 8 percent reduction targets without increasing tuition.
The second Executive Order implements several cost-saving measures across state government directing agencies:
* To limit overtime wherever possible.
* To ensure that all state vehicles are parked overnight at state offices, unless absolutely necessary for a state employee to carry out their job responsibilities.
* To limit mileage reimbursement by requiring employees to car pools and use pooled state vehicles wherever possible.
* To print all publications exclusively online wherever possible.
* To retain only essential consulting services and to terminate existing consulting contracts where feasible.
* To cancel subscriptions for books, newspapers and periodicals wherever possible.
* To undertake a reduction in their telephone landlines where possible - a move that is saving the Judicial Branch $10,000 - and to reduce mobile cell phone use and encourage the pooling of cell phones.
In addition, no tuition reimbursements will be authorized without a waiver for the remainder of the fiscal year.
Together these Executive Orders will produce a savings of at least $56.6 million.
In addition, Gov. Lynch has been in discussions with the legislative leadership about the need for legislation that allows the state to reduce the revenue shortfall by about another $20 million. It would include legislative and judicial branch reductions and an additional lapse from the retirement system valued at about $2.6 million; authorize the Highway Fund to repay $5 million in general funds; to transfer about $10 million in surplus from various dedicated funds to the general fund; and to make $2 to $3 million in additional agency reductions that would require full legislative approval. It would also recommending the deferral of pay increases for non-classified and unclassified employees, which would save $500,000.
Gov. Lynch said he will continue discussions with representatives of employees about additional steps to address salary or benefit costs. Those changes would need to be agreed to as part of a renegotiation of the Collective Bargaining Agreement.
The executive orders and proposed legislation, the revenue shortfall gap will be reduced from $250 million to about $75 million.
"We have made significant progress, but we must still work together to address the remaining challenge," Gov. Lynch said.
Gov. Lynch said that while a record $89 million remains in the Rainy Day Fund, those savings should be used only as a last resort.
"These are tough times for New Hampshire families and businesses. The global economic situation continues to be volatile, and we must continue to carefully watch revenues closely and take the necessary steps to manage the budget," Gov. Lynch said. "I am committed to ensuring we continue to be fiscally responsible and end the biennium with a balanced budget."
Copies of the Executive Orders are attached.
script icongambling
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New Hampshire's weakening economy is bad for business and hard on state government. But it may be good for the gambling industry, where hopes are high that a desperate need for new revenue this year will inspire legislators to allow slot machines at the state's racetracks and beyond.
In the meantime, both pro- and anti-gambling forces are girding for a tough fight at the State House. "This is going to be our hardest fight ever," said Jim Rubens, a former state senator who chairs the Granite State Coalition Against Expanded Gambling.
The pro-gambling case has made inroads in the House and Senate over the past year. Last spring, a slot machine bill narrowly failed in the Senate; this fall, the House Ways and Means Committee voted 9-8 to recommend a bill to expand gambling. That's a tremendous change, said Jim Demers, a lobbyist who represents Millennium Gaming, the Las Vegas-based company that wants to install slot machines at Salem's Rockingham Park, a horse and dog racetrack.
"I think the actions of the House Ways and Means Committee, which is not considered an extremely pro-gambling committee, speaks volumes to the concerns legislators have as to how to deal with the budgetary process," Demers said.
"It's the state's call, but in these very challenging times, there's going to be cuts," said Rich Killion, a lobbyist for the Rock. "But there's only so far you can go before you start impacting our quality of life."
Always hard, New Hampshire's budget process this year may be the most difficult in a generation. This year's budget, which ends in June, is now projected to fall short $250 million. Think-tanks have calculated that the next two-year budget could have a starting-point shortfall - assuming current services are maintained and commitments like contractual wage increases are honored - of a half-billion dollars.
Both fans and foes of casino operators say the budget climate may make the political climate ripe for expanded gambling. Plans generally involve permitting high-tech slot machines, or "video lottery terminals" at the state's four horse or greyhound racing tracks, turning them into so-called "racinos," plus potentially allowing one or more of the North Country's grand hotels a permit for slots.
Gambling proponents say the state could reap $150 million a year or more from slots, some of which, they argue, is money residents are already spending in one of the other states that do allow casino-style gambling, including Maine and Connecticut. Opponents question those estimates, saying that the cost of affiliated social problems like addiction and crime would wipe out much or all of the state's take.
Pro-gambling legislators say slots are the only viable way for the state to bring in big money. Other major potential revenue streams - either an income or sales tax - are widely seen as doomed because Gov. John Lynch has always said he would veto either. Over the past four years, Lynch, a Democrat, has had a consistent, if oblique, stance on gambling: He's always said that before he can support it, he'll need evidence that it won't harm New Hampshire's quality of life. Pro-gambling forces see that as an open door.
Lynch spokesman Colin Manning said last week that the governor will need to hear more about gambling's impact on the economy, jobs, and social concerns. "Those are questions that still need to be answered if and when a plan is brought forward," Manning said.
Longtime gambling proponent Sen. Lou D'Allesandro of Manchester worked for most of last year to rally support in the Senate, and he wound up two votes shy of a majority. "We had 11 votes in the Senate last year, and we thought we had the 12th," he said. "I think the situation now is graver, and that may give us what we need."
Even if Lynch and the Senate get behind expanded gambling, the fight is far from over. There's long been a wide anti-gambling feeling in the 400-member, difficult-to-lobby House from both political parties.
"The House has never even come close to supporting gambling," said House Speaker Terie Norelli, who has said she personally opposed gambling in the past because she believed "that the kind of money that we would get would not be worth the change in our quality of life."
However, Norelli said, she had heard some folks who've long opposed gambling wondering aloud whether they could be convinced this year. "When times get tough, and they are certainly tough, we tend to reconsider some things that we had dismissed before," she said.
In the Senate
After years of opposing gambling, retiring Sen. Peter Burling provided one of the new votes for D'Allesandro's slot bill last spring. His reasoning was simple: He came to believe that it was the only way to leave necessary state services intact.
Looking at the spending side of the ledger, Burling said, he sees no good way to make up hundreds of millions of dollars. "There's no fat anywhere. Anywhere," Burling said. "If we're going to cut, we're going to have to cut whole programs from Health and Human Services or Safety or support for counties or the Department of Transportation. And you tell me what in that mix makes any sense."
But, as Burling saw it, the debate on the revenue side was at an impasse. "What are the solutions?" said Burling, a Cornish Democrat. "Income tax? Ain't happening. Sales tax? I doubt it. Property tax? None of us will be living here any more. Gambling? My own view is that any serious person who's just been elected to the state Legislature has to consider it."
Gambling debates tend not to be strictly partisan, with strong opponents and proponents in both parties. Last year, Burling said, the debate was difficult for Democrats. "We had huge, huge fights in the caucus over this issue," Burling said. "There were very passionately held feelings."
D'Allesandro can tick off a list of reasons to support a gambling bill beyond pure state revenue. Expanded facilities would mean as many as 4,000 new jobs, he said, initially in construction and then working the racinos. And he argues that gambling is nothing new: Aside from the lottery, bingo, horse and dog racing, there's also the growing field of legal poker rooms for charity.
"Believe me, there's more gaming going on in this state than you can shake a stick at," D'Allesandro says.
D'Allesandro will have to make his case anew this year: With six new members not even sworn in, no one says they have a firm count on who's in the pro-gambling camp.
Those senators will also hear from Rubens, who can reel off a host of problems that, studies have shown, are correlated with gambling, including increased welfare costs, suicide, embezzlement and lost productivity. He says that profit estimates are often inflated and that once New Hampshire legalizes slots, Massachusetts will follow suit, cutting into New Hampshire's profit margin.
Moreover, Rubens said, gambling interests have warped politics elsewhere. "Once we let these people in the door, we're going to have a permanently corrupted political system," he said. Legislatures, he said, get "addicted to gambling money."
On the Republican side of the aisle, Milford's Peter Bragdon will take the lead this year after being elected minority leader last week. Years ago, Bragdon signed on as an opponent of gambling, but in an interview last week, he said that he wouldn't entirely rule it out.
"I would say that I haven't been convinced that the benefits brought on by expanded gambling... outweigh the social costs," Bragdon said. "I am willing to have that conversation, but I have not been convinced of that."
He, like other Republicans, said that legislators should start by cutting spending, not looking to increase revenues. But he also notes that his grandfather was a state representative in the 1950s and 1960s, during epic debates over the state lottery. The arguments then - about irreparable harm to the state's quality of life - echo those of the current day.
In the House
For all the uncertainty in the governor's office and in Senate, the hardest gambling fight may be in the House.
Though this year, as always, there was substantial turnover in membership, the House has never budged much toward gambling. "I think the House opposes gambling, and will continue to oppose gambling," said Rep. Neal Kurk, a Weare Republican who opposes gambling.
But pro-gambling forces have already racked up one victory this year, in the House Ways and Means Committee. After 16 months of studying the issue, a subcommittee recommended that the state pass future gambling legislation by a 5-1 vote. This fall, the full committee endorsed that recommendation on a narrow, 9-8 vote.
Sending a bill to study committees is often a way of euthanizing a controversial proposal, but it appears that no one on the pro-gambling side took this one lightly. "I've been surprised at how religiously the lobbyists attended," said Rep. Michael Marsh, one of the members of the study committee. "Every meeting, they were present in force."
For his part, Marsh said, he opposes gambling, but he supported the committee's recommendations only because he thinks they crafted solid proposals on oversight and licensing fees. "I wanted to help put together the best possible bill for the state," said Marsh, a Greenland Democrat.
Rep. Christine Hamm, a Hopkinton Democrat who chaired the study committee, said she, too, voted for the bill because she wanted to move it forward, but she's not sure how she would cast a vote on a final bill.
"I want to move every kind of legislation forward that provides additional revenue sources," Hamm said. "Despite what some people think or would argue, we are a very lean state as it is and we simply cannot go forward without a revenue source."
But there remain many - on the left and right - who are entrenched one way or the other. A nonscientific Monitor e-mail survey of a sampling of legislators found a many strongly held feelings and only a few who professed to be persuadable.
One theory goes that the legislators who live near the state's ailing tracks - in Belmont, Hinsdale, Seabrook and Salem - will see gains in their backyards and will be more likely to get behind a gambling proposal. In Salem, gambling lobbyists made the case to some House candidates even before they got elected, according to former House speaker Donna Sytek, a Republican and staunch opponent of gambling.
Meanwhile, in preparation for the years tough debate, Rep. Susan Almy plans to meet with economists this month to figure out how big of a haul the state of New Hampshire could really expect from slot machines.
Almy, a Lebanon Democrat who chairs the House Ways and Means Committee, opposes gambling. But, she said, she's concerned with making sure legislators have solid numbers, "so that we don't make a deal dazzled by the numbers the casino operators always throw at us."
"Even worse than being stuck with slot machines all over the state for the rest of our lives - which I really don't want to see - even worse would be being stuck with them and then getting half the revenue that they said we were going to get from them," she said.
This article is: 31 days old.
script iconBALLS no go
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The poor economy factored into Gov. John Lynch's decision to forgo an inaugural ball Thursday, but he probably would have skipped the ceremony even if times were good.
Still, local lawmakers applauded the decision to skip the formal dining and dancing affair.
Sen. Sharon Carson, R-Londonderry, said she thinks the governor's decision was appropriate, given the hard times and job losses with which people in the state are struggling. Then there was the ice storm that made life difficult for many, she said.
"I'm glad to see the emphasis is going to be on the budget crisis and getting the state back on an even financial keel," Carson said.
Rep. Carolyn Webber, D-Windham, said Lynch set a good example by having no ball.
"I think it is very noble of him," Webber said.
Colin Manning, the governor's press secretary, said word has been out that the governor gave up the ball because of the poor economy. That is not entirely the case, he said. The economy was part of the reason, Manning said.
It's not unusual for a governor to pass on the inaugural ball in the third term, Manning said.
Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen didn't have an inaugural ball after being re-elected for a second time, Manning said.
"I don't think there would have been plans to have a ball regardless of the shape of the economy," he said.
The governor will start his day honoring state workers at a breakfast at Tuck Library.
The inaugural swearing-in ceremony begins at noon in Representatives Hall at the Statehouse before a joint session of the Legislature.
At 3:30 p.m., the governor will hold his first meeting with the Executive Council.
script iconkey: Community Politics/ Government
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NEW HAMPSHIRE OUTLOOK Air Date/Time: 1/11/2009
HOST: Beth Carroll Length: 8:37
The Inauguration of Governor Lynch and reaction to his 2009 Agenda. Hello, I'm Beth Carroll. Welcome to this special edition of NH Outlook -- the Inauguration of Governor John Lynch. We're coming to you from the State House in Concord where the Governor will take the oath of office for a Third time. Inside Representatives Hall -- before a joint session of the Legislature -- and with a crowd of past governors, dignataries, and family looking on --the democrat from Hopkinton outlined his agenda. We bring you now highlights of the Governor's Inaugural address:
PRODUCER/REPORTER: Beth Carroll and Richard Ager NAME OF PARTICIPANTS: Governor John Lynch \ New Hampshire,
script iconkey: Community Politics/ Government
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NEW HAMPSHIRE OUTLOOK Air Date/Time: 1/11/2009
HOST: Beth Carroll Length: 2:48
The Inauguration of Governor Lynch and reaction to his 2009 Agenda. Hello, I'm Beth Carroll. Welcome to this special edition of NH Outlook -- Reaction to an Inauguration Speech is always swift. How do those on the other side of the aisle feel about the Governor's agenda. Outlook's Richard Ager caught up with some after the ceremony. to get their thoughts.
PRODUCER/REPORTER: Richard Ager NAME OF PARTICIPANTS: Sen. Peter Bragdon\Senate Republican Leader, Sylvia Larsen\NH Senate President.
script iconkey: Community Politics/ Government
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NEW HAMPSHIRE OUTLOOK Air Date/Time: 1/11/2009
HOST: Beth Carroll Length: 15:38
The Inauguration of Governor Lynch and reaction to his 2009 Agenda. Hello, I'm Beth Carroll. Welcome to this special edition of NH Outlook -- We've heard from lawmakers -- now we turn to veteran statehouse reporters: Kevin Landrigan of The Telegraph and Tom Fahey from the Union Leader for their READ on the Governor's speech.
PRODUCER/REPORTER: Beth Carroll NAME OF PARTICIPANTS: Kevin Landrigan\The Telegraph
script iconkey: Economy
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NEW HAMPSHIRE OUTLOOK Air Date/Time: 1/11/2009
HOST: Beth Carroll Length: 15:38
The Inauguration of Governor Lynch and reaction to his 2009 Agenda. Hello, I'm Beth Carroll. Welcome to this special edition of NH Outlook -- We've heard from lawmakers -- now we turn to veteran statehouse reporters: Kevin Landrigan of The Telegraph and Tom Fahey from the Union Leader for their READ on the Governor's speech.
PRODUCER/REPORTER: Beth Carroll NAME OF PARTICIPANTS: Kevin Landrigan\The Telegraph
script iconkey: Employment
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NEW HAMPSHIRE OUTLOOK Air Date/Time: 1/11/2009
HOST: Beth Carroll Length: 15:38
The Inauguration of Governor Lynch and reaction to his 2009 Agenda. Hello, I'm Beth Carroll. Welcome to this special edition of NH Outlook -- We've heard from lawmakers -- now we turn to veteran statehouse reporters: Kevin Landrigan of The Telegraph and Tom Fahey from the Union Leader for their READ on the Governor's speech.
PRODUCER/REPORTER: Beth Carroll NAME OF PARTICIPANTS: Kevin Landrigan\The Telegraph
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