NH Outlook Talk Show , Friday, 1/14/2011
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script iconHello/Intro Economy Experts script iconKey: Business/ Industry
script iconEconomy Experts script iconKey: Economy
script iconThanks/Goodbye script iconKey: Community Politics/ Government

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Return to index of stories... 		Bite: Economy Experts Disk: 14:47:30 We think this recovery is going to last.
Track: It's the good, the bad and the ugly. We hear from the experts who are advising legislators on the next state budget.
script iconHello/Intro Economy Experts
Return to index of stories... 		HELLO, I'M RICHARD AGER. WELCOME TO NH OUTLOOK.
AS THE NEW HAMPSHIRE HOUSE AND SENATE GET TO WORK ON THE STATE BUDGET, THEY HAVE CALLED IN A RANGE OF ECONOMIC EXPERTS TO GET A BROAD PICTURE OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE ECONOMY. WE ASKED FOUR OF THOSE EXPERTS TO JOIN US FOR THIS PROGRAM - BUT FIRST, A BIT OF BACKGROUND.
script iconEconomy Experts
Return to index of stories... 		WELCOME ALL. I SHOULD SAY I HAVE EXAMINED ALL THE POWERPOINTS THAT YOU PRESENTED TO THE LEGISLATORS - AND TO THE POINT THEY WERE. 3 MAIN THEMES - THE SIZE OF THE DEFICIT, WHAT CAN OR SHOULD BE DONE, AND SOME REASONABLE PROJECTIONS.
1: SO - LET'S START WITH THE SIZE OF BUDGET PROBLEM? DENNIS DELAY - YOU SAY $250 - $680 MILLION DEPENDING ON ASSUMPTIONS. WHAT WILL THE ECONOMY, THE FEDS AND THE STATE LEGISLATURE DO? EXPLAIN.
2: DOES ANYONE HAVE A MAJOR DISAGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SIZE OF THE PROBLEM -OR THE VARIABLES AS LISTED BY DENNIS?
3: CHARLIE - IN YOUR TESTIMONY AT THE LEGISLATURE, YOU CITED PAST REVENUE ESTIMATES AND SAID "UNCERTAINTY NEEDS GREAT CAUTION". SOUNDS LIKE A FORTUNE COOKIE. EXPLAIN.
YOU LIST THREE TROUBLEMAKERS: BUSINESS TAXES
REAL ESTATE TRANSFER TAX, AND INTEREST AND DIVIDENDS TAX.
4: RUSS - YOUR SPECIALTY IS THE REAL ESTATE MARKET- AND THERE YOU SAY THE WORST OF THE DOWNTURN HAS PASSED. MARKETS ARE GENERALLY STABLE, BUT AT FAR LOWER LEVELS THAN WE WOULD LIKE TO EXPERIENCE. IN YOUR WORDS, "HOUSING RECOVERIES ARE SLOW BOATS."
PRIMARY FACTORS DRIVING THE MARKET:
THE OVERHANG OF FORECLOSED PROPERTIES - 2010 WAS A RECORD YEAR - 4000 FORECLOSURES - 10 TIMES NORMAL LEVEL. 25% OF ALL PROPERTIES SOLD IN THE MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE
BUT - YOU ALSO PREDICT THE IMPROVING ECONOMY WILL HELP STEM NEW FORECLOSURES.
5: DAVE JUVET, THE BIA CONDUCTED A SURVEY OF 300 BUSINESSES AND CAME UP WITH SOME POSITIVE FINDINGS:
47% think economy is improving
Half think revenue will grow
1 in 3 will make major capital investment
20% will hire more
BUT ALSO SOME CONCERNS:
Health Care: Larger businesses 78% Smaller 61%
NH Business Taxes: 56% 46%
Cost of Energy: 61% 42%
6: I THOUGHT HAROLD TURNER SUMMED IT UP WELL IN HIS TESTIMONY THAT WE SAW IN THE OPENING PIECE - "WE NEED MORE CUSTOMERS."
BUSINESS PEOPLE DRIVE THROUGH THE REAR-VIEW MIRROR - TRYING TO AVOID LOSING MORE MONEY
- GET CAUGHT IN SPIRAL - MAINTAINING
- WE ALWAYS THINK TOMORROW WILL BE BETTER
- FOR A SMALL BUSINESS, A HALF A STAFF PERSON COULD BE THE YEAR'S PROFIT
HE ALSO SAID HE DOESN'T EXPECT TO PAY MORE BUSINESS TAXES IN 2011 - BECAUSE IT COULD BE A YEAR TO REINVEST - AND MONEY GOES OUT THAT OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE BEEN TAXABLE INCOME.
7: ECONOMIST FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE SAID:
THREATS TO GROWTH - WEAK HOUSING SECTOR - FORECLOSURE NUMBERS - PROBLEMS IN "EUROPE -
FISCAL SITUATION OF STATES AND LOCAL GOVT. IN THIS COUNTRY. SHE ADDED "THERE IS A RECOVERY TAKING HOLD, ESPECIALLY IN NH".
Very tough year for local govts., in terms of property tax revenues - CA defaulting - the federal govt. would not bail them out.
Really concerned - if legislatures don't take action - if a budget crisis doesn't get solved
8: IN LOOKING AHEAD - AND MAKING BUDGET RECOMMENDATIONS. DENNIS: WHAT WILL ECONOMY DO? YOU PROJECT STATE REVENUE INCREASE 3.5% FROM 2012 - 2013
WHAT WILL FEDERAL GOVT. DO? YOU SAY 2011 BUDGET AS PASSED INCLUDES $124 MILLION IN FEDERAL REVENUE ENHANCEMENTS.
WHAT WILL NH LEGISLATURE DO?
9: RUSS - YOU SAID THE OUTLOOK IS FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DURING 2011 PROVIDED:
THE NUMBER OF NEW FORECLOSURES DROPS SOMEWHAT
THE STATE AND NATIONAL ECONOMIES DO NOT DOUBLE DIP
INTEREST RATES DON'T RISE DRAMATICALLY
ONE SURPRISING STATISTIC:
YOU TESTIFIED THAT HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IS DRAMATICALLY BETTER. FOR EXAMPLE, THE MONTHLY PAYMENT TO BUY A MEDIAN NH HOME IS DOWN 38%.
RUSS: Job and Income Growth
The Pace of New Construction
Interest Rates/Credit Availability
Affordability
Consumer Confidence
10: CHARLIE: YOU CALL FOR TAX CHANGES TO BE MADE:
LOWERING BUSINESS TAXES?
LOWER RATES NOT SPECIAL CREDITS
FINALLY - GET PRACTICAL ADVICE NOT ECONOMIC. AND DON'T ELIMINATE BET CREDIT
11: DAVE JUVET - YOU HAVE A SMALL BUSINESS DAY COMING AT THE LEGISLATURE - WHAT DO YOU EXPECT?
12: FINALLY - *** Russ- PERHAPS THE SAFEST prediction - the Patriots will win the Superbowl. Is there agreement on that?
script iconThanks/Goodbye
Return to index of stories... 		THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE FOR THIS EDITION OF NH OUTLOOK. OUR THANKS TO RUSS THIBEAULT, DENNIS DELAY, CHARLIE ARLINGHAUS, AND DAVE JUVET. WE'LL SEE YOU NEXT TIME ON NH OUTLOOK.
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script iconKey: Business/ Industry
Return to index of stories... 		NEW HAMPSHIRE OUTLOOK Air Date/Time: 1/14/2011
HOST: Richard Ager Length: 25:00
Hello, I'm Richard Ager. Welcome to NH Outlook. As the New Hampshire House and Senate get to work on the state budget, they have called in a range of economic experts to get a broad picture of the New Hampshire economy. We asked four of those experts to join us for this program - But first, a bit of background.
PRODUCER/REPORTER: Richard Ager NAME OF PARTICIPANTS: Yolanda Kodrzycki\Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Harold Turner\H.L. Turner Group, Russ Thibeault\President, Applied Economic Research, Dennis Delay\Center for Public Policy Research, Charlie Arlinghaus\President, Josiah Bartlett Center, David Juvet\Senior VP, BIA
script iconKey: Economy
Return to index of stories... 		NEW HAMPSHIRE OUTLOOK Air Date/Time: 1/14/2011
HOST: Richard Ager Length: 25:00
Hello, I'm Richard Ager. Welcome to NH Outlook. As the New Hampshire House and Senate get to work on the state budget, they have called in a range of economic experts to get a broad picture of the New Hampshire economy. We asked four of those experts to join us for this program - But first, a bit of background.
PRODUCER/REPORTER: Richard Ager NAME OF PARTICIPANTS: Yolanda Kodrzycki\Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Harold Turner\H.L. Turner Group, Russ Thibeault\President, Applied Economic Research, Dennis Delay\Center for Public Policy Research, Charlie Arlinghaus\President, Josiah Bartlett Center, David Juvet\Senior VP, BIA
script iconKey: Community Politics/ Government
Return to index of stories... 		NEW HAMPSHIRE OUTLOOK Air Date/Time: 1/14/2011
HOST: Richard Ager Length: 25:00
Hello, I'm Richard Ager. Welcome to NH Outlook. As the New Hampshire House and Senate get to work on the state budget, they have called in a range of economic experts to get a broad picture of the New Hampshire economy. We asked four of those experts to join us for this program - But first, a bit of background.
PRODUCER/REPORTER: Richard Ager NAME OF PARTICIPANTS: Yolanda Kodrzycki\Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Harold Turner\H.L. Turner Group, Russ Thibeault\President, Applied Economic Research, Dennis Delay\Center for Public Policy Research, Charlie Arlinghaus\President, Josiah Bartlett Center, David Juvet\Senior VP, BIA
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